Top 9 Bubble Games You Can’t Miss in Men’s College Basketball Finale!

The last weekend before the majority of conference tournaments kick off is upon us, offering one final opportunity for teams on the brink to secure their NCAA tournament at-large bids.

As the men’s college basketball regular season wraps up, several teams are scrambling to finalize their tournament prospects before the madness of March begins.

Several teams are still in the fight for an at-large bid, according to Sports Illustrated’s recent bracket projection. SEC contenders like Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are relying on their strong conference performance to boost their chances. Ohio State and Indiana face a critical matchup, with each team needing a win to secure their spot. Meanwhile, North Carolina is not just playing for usual rivalry honors in their game against Duke.

With some regular-season conference titles still up for grabs, the focus this week is on the bubble teams. Here are the key games this weekend for teams hoping to prolong their seasons:

Colorado State Rams (21–9) at Boise State Broncos (22–8)

Friday, 10 p.m. ET, FS1

The Mountain West Conference has been particularly competitive this year, and it remains to be seen how many teams will make it into the 68-team field. The Broncos have been surging, notching significant wins over New Mexico and Utah State thanks largely to senior forward Tyson Degenhart’s standout performances. Earlier this season, Degenhart dropped 27 points on Colorado State. However, the Rams managed to stave off a comeback from Boise State in that game, winning by three points. With six consecutive victories recently, Colorado State has fought their way back into bubble discussions. This game could very well be the highlight of the weekend, serving as a perfect lead-in to the rest of the weekend’s action.

Impact on the Bubble: Neither team is currently in the projected field as of Friday, though Boise State is close. A win might not be enough by itself, but a strong performance in the Mountain West tournament could be key. For Colorado State, a victory is crucial to stay in contention for an at-large bid and would place them in the First Four Out with a win.

No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs (20–10) at Arkansas Razorbacks (18–12)

Saturday, noon ET, SEC Network

The Razorbacks bounced back from a lackluster performance at South Carolina last weekend with a convincing victory on the road against Vanderbilt, where they shot nearly 51% from the field. All five starters scored in double figures, with Johnell Davis leading the way with 21 points. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, losing recently to SEC bubble teams Texas and Oklahoma. John Calipari’s team appears to be finding their rhythm at the right time, and a win over the Bulldogs would establish Arkansas as a formidable opponent in upcoming tournaments.

Impact on the Bubble: A victory wouldn’t guarantee Arkansas a spot, but it would make it challenging for them to be ousted from the field barring multiple bid-stealers or significant changes in other bubble teams’ résumés. A loss, however, would leave their chances hanging by a thread heading into the SEC tournament.

Ohio State Buckeyes (17–13) at Indiana Hoosiers (18–12)

Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET, CBS

The Buckeyes have recovered from a recent rough patch, including a blowout loss at home to Northwestern, by securing wins in their two most recent games against similar Big Ten competition. In a high-scoring affair against Nebraska, four players scored 20 points or more, highlighting a critical, albeit exhausting, victory. Indiana has been more consistent, even with Mike Woodson’s impending departure casting a shadow over the team. The Hoosiers were competitive in a recent loss at Oregon, which was influenced heavily by free throw discrepancies. The last matchup between these two required overtime to decide a winner. With high stakes on the line, the rematch could be just as dramatic.

Impact on the Bubble: This is essentially a win-and-in game for both teams, potentially moving the victor out of the First Four and into the main draw. The loser will likely need at least one win in the Big Ten tournament to secure a spot.

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (27–3) at North Carolina Tar Heels (20–11)

Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

This is the pinnacle of college basketball rivalries. The Tar Heels, teetering on the edge of the bubble, have an opportunity to solidify their tournament bid with a home victory against their archrival. UNC has been playing their best basketball against the lower tier of the ACC, winning their last six games by an average margin of 19.5 points. However, they face a formidable Duke squad that has been steamrolling opponents, including recent lopsided victories over Wake Forest and Florida State. The previous matchup this season was decisively in Duke’s favor, but a stronger start at home could change the narrative for UNC.

Impact on the Bubble: A win over Duke would significantly boost UNC’s chances of making the field, moving them from the bubble to a more secure position. However, achieving that is no small feat. Even a competitive game could improve their metrics. A loss would mean UNC needs to secure at least one Quad 1 win in the ACC tournament, potentially setting up another showdown with Duke.

Oklahoma Sooners (18–12) at Texas Longhorns (17–13)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, SEC Network

In a matchup not typically noted for its basketball rivalry, the Red River rivals clash in a game with significant implications. Oklahoma recently upset Missouri, rebounding from narrow losses to Kentucky and Ole Miss. Texas, meanwhile, halted a three-game skid with a surprising win at Mississippi State. Watch out for Sooners freshman Jeremiah Fears, who scored a career-high 31 points in their last game. Fears and his teammate Jalon Moore will need to replicate their combined 49-point effort from their mid-January loss to Texas to turn the tables this time around.

Impact on the Bubble: This game is crucial for both teams. Oklahoma is in a slightly better position, but a loss could jeopardize their spot come Monday. They would need at least one win in the SEC tournament to feel secure. For Texas, a victory might still not be enough to secure a spot, but it would make their path in the SEC tournament less daunting.

Bubble Teams, Beware … Don’t Lose These Games

Providence Friars (12–18) at Xavier Musketeers (20–10)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, FS1

Xavier, currently among the Last Four In, has been on a hot streak, winning six consecutive games. They previously dominated Providence in mid-February, sparking their current run. All that remains is to close out the regular season with a similar performance against the same opponent and focus on accumulating wins in the Big East tournament.

UCF Knights (16–14) at West Virginia Mountaineers (18–12)

Saturday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+

West Virginia remains in a good position for one of the last four byes after a crucial win at Utah. However, they can’t afford any missteps against UCF. The Knights, despite falling out of tournament consideration earlier in February, have won three of their last four. Darius Johnson is a significant threat for the Mountaineers, coming off a strong performance with 36 points and seven three-pointers in their recent win over Oklahoma State.

Nevada Wolf Pack (16–14) at San Diego State Aztecs (20–8)

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1

San Diego State was seemingly secure in the tournament field until a recent loss to a UNLV team that was on fire. The Aztecs still represent the Mountain West’s best chance to secure a third tournament berth, but a loss could jeopardize that and boost teams like Boise State and Colorado State. Nevada, which played closely against regular-season champ New Mexico recently, faces a tough challenge. In their last meeting with the Aztecs, the Wolf Pack struggled offensively, managing only 50 points and shooting 29% from the field.

Iowa Hawkeyes (15–15) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (17–13)

Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Fox

The Cornhuskers face a critical game on their home court, with their tournament hopes and a spot in the 15-team Big Ten tournament at risk. After a disappointing loss to Iowa, Nebraska is looking to bounce back from a recent three-game losing streak. The Hawkeyes showed promise in their last game against Michigan State, while Nebraska fought hard in a 114-point, two-overtime loss at Ohio State. Expect a fired-up performance from Fred Hoiberg’s team as they strive to secure their tournament position.