Five AFC teams have already secured their spots in the playoffs, while four NFC teams have also clinched postseason berths. Here’s what could happen this coming weekend in terms of playoff clinching scenarios.
AFC Playoff Landscape Clearing Up
By Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs had secured the top spot in the AFC by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers. This victory, combined with the Baltimore Ravens’ triumph over the Houston Texans, positions Baltimore in the third seed and drops Pittsburgh to the fifth seed.
On the NFC side, clarity might emerge on Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, and Atlanta Falcons are all in positions to clinch their divisions. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks are grasping to maintain their playoff hopes.
Let’s review the standings post-Christmas festivities.
It’s important to note that all playoff probabilities discussed are provided by The Athletic’s model.
AFC: Secured Teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 15-1, first in AFC West
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
With their recent victory over the Steelers, the Chiefs have not only clinched the top seed in the AFC but have also secured a potential seventh consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship Game, should they win their next postseason game.
2. Buffalo Bills
Record: 12-3, first in AFC East
Remaining games against teams over .500: 0
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
The Bills could secure the second seed by defeating the New York Jets this Sunday. A win could lead them to rest starters against the New England Patriots in Week 18.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 11-5, first in AFC North
Remaining games against teams over .500: 0
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
Following their victory over the Texans, the Ravens now lead the AFC North. A win next weekend at home against the Cleveland Browns would clinch the division title.
4. Houston Texans
Record: 9-7, first in AFC South
Remaining games against teams over .500: 0
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
The Texans have solidified the fourth seed and can use Week 18 as a bye week to rest their starters.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10-6, second in AFC North
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
After three consecutive losses, the Steelers are now a wild card team. To clinch the division, Pittsburgh needs to win against the Cincinnati Bengals at home next weekend and hope for a Ravens loss.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 9-6, second in AFC West
Remaining games against teams over .500: 0
Chance of making the playoffs: 94%
A win against the New England Patriots on Saturday would secure a playoff spot for the Chargers, marking their second appearance in three years. A win combined with a Denver loss would ensure at least the sixth seed.
7. Denver Broncos
Record: 9-6, third in AFC West
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 75%
The Broncos can secure a playoff spot by defeating the Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Saturday. Even with a loss, they still control their playoff destiny, needing a victory over the Chiefs in Week 18.
Still in the Playoff Race
Indianapolis Colts (7-8): The Colts must beat the New York Giants this weekend and hope for a Denver loss to stay in contention.
Miami Dolphins (7-8): Miami remains in the hunt but needs a win against the Browns in Cleveland and a Denver loss.
Cincinnati Bengals (7-8): The Bengals need a win over the Broncos this weekend and then require Denver to lose in Week 18, while also hoping for losses from Miami and Indianapolis.
NFC: Teams that Have Clinched
1. Detroit Lions
Record: 13-2, first in NFC North
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
The Lions could secure the top seed and the NFC North title this weekend if the Minnesota Vikings lose to the Green Bay Packers and Detroit beats the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Monday night.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 12-3, first in NFC East
Remaining games against teams over .500: 0
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
Philadelphia can clinch the NFC East if they beat the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, or if the Washington Commanders lose to the Falcons at home on Sunday night.
3. Los Angeles Rams
Record: 9-6, first in NFC West
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 86%
Los Angeles will need to defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 to win the NFC West, regardless of their result against the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, following Seattle’s Thursday night win over the Chicago Bears.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 8-7, first in NFC South
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 51%
Atlanta can secure their playoff spot if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers and the Falcons defeat Washington on the road, thus clinching the NFC South.
5. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 13-2, second in NFC North
Remaining games against teams over .500: 2
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
Minnesota hosts the Green Bay Packers, who are coming off a short week. A win sets up a decisive game in Week 18 against the Lions. The winner secures the top NFC seed, while the loser takes the fifth seed.
6. Green Bay Packers
Record: 11-4, third in NFC North
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 100%
Following a Monday night victory over the New Orleans Saints, Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot. They are now locked into the wild-card round, unable to win the NFC North.
7. Washington Commanders
Record: 10-5, second in NFC East
Remaining games against teams over .500: 1
Chance of making the playoffs: 95%
Washington can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons, or if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers at home.
Teams Still Contending
Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Despite a recent win over Chicago, the Seahawks are currently out of the playoffs. However, a victory over the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 18 would secure the NFC West title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7): The Buccaneers can remain in playoff contention with a win over the Panthers. A loss, combined with anything but a tie between the Commanders and Falcons, would eliminate them from playoff contention.
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Jordan Harper brings the world of sports to life with passionate storytelling and insightful analysis. From local matches to international tournaments, Jordan captures the spirit of competition in every piece.
