Ranked 15th nationally, Arizona State likely secured a spot in the College Football Playoff following a commanding 45-19 victory over 16th-ranked Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game. The Sun Devils were dominant, outperforming the Cyclones with a total of 464 yards to 341.
The top five rated conference champions receive automatic entries into the 12-team College Football Playoff. Among them, the four highest-rated teams are awarded the top four seeds and first-round byes. Boise State, after securing the Mountain West title with a 21-7 victory over UNLV, has been a consistent top bye team contender since the Week 12 CFP rankings, especially after BYU’s first loss of the season. At that time, Arizona State was a peripheral figure in the playoff talks, ranked 21st with an 8-2 record. However, following their recent victory streak, including a decisive win over Iowa State, they are now a strong contender for a first-round bye.
Arizona State might not only surpass Boise State for the No. 4 seed (and a first-round bye), but it’s also conceivable that the fifth conference champion ranks above No. 12.
It’s premature to finalize seeding (or easiest paths, etc) before Sunday.
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) December 7, 2024
Since their disappointing loss to Cincinnati, the worst of the season, the Sun Devils have rallied to win six straight games, including victories over three ranked opponents—Kansas State, BYU, and Iowa State, all contenders for the Big 12 title until last week. These wins were achieved by an average margin of 18 points, with four games decided by double digits. Earlier in the season, ASU also defeated Utah, then ranked 16th, with their star quarterback Cam Rising.
While Boise State has remained undefeated in the Mountain West, their performance wasn’t always commanding, struggling against teams with only three wins, such as Nevada (28-21) and Wyoming (17-13). In contrast, Arizona State crushed the same Wyoming team 48-7 at the start of their season.
I ended up in the hospital the morning after tweeting this, but I will literally die on this hill.
The Big 12 champ deserves a bye over Boise State. https://t.co/3eSOOnDD8V
— Matt Fortuna (@Matt_Fortuna) December 7, 2024
Boise State’s only loss, a close 37-34 game at Oregon, has proven to be a valuable part of their season, as Oregon has since improved significantly, securing a top seed in tonight’s Big Ten championship. In contrast, Oregon struggled early on, barely getting past FCS team Idaho 24-14, with quarterback Dillon Gabriel getting sacked seven times in the games surrounding their match with Boise State, before adjustments were made to their offensive line.
Arizona State’s defeat at Cincinnati also came under challenging circumstances, with their starting quarterback Sam Leavitt absent due to injury. Leavitt, honored as the All-Big 12 second-team quarterback and the league’s offensive freshman of the year, missed this crucial game. The Sun Devils’ only other loss was to a strong Texas Tech team that finished 8-4 (6-3) and was a contender in the Big 12 until the end.
Arizona State deserves a good seed in the playoff, maybe 10th (ahead of Indiana, Alabama) if they don’t pass Boise State. Going to be 11-2, with two Top 25 victories. One loss was when QB Sam Leavitt was out. Shouldn’t be hindered because preseason expectations were so low.
— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) December 7, 2024
While Boise State boasts significant star power and a history as a college football underdog story, highlighted by Jeanty’s phenomenal season leading up to the Heisman ceremony, ASU has its own standout performers. Running back Cam Skattebo, possibly the country’s top running back after Jeanty, amassed 208 yards and three touchdowns in the Big 12 championship, bringing his season totals to 2,064 scrimmage yards and 22 touchdowns.
Both teams are undoubtedly deserving of spots in the College Football Playoff, but it’s Arizona State that’s peaking at the right time. Boise State, despite their Friday win, has looked more vulnerable in recent games.
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