ACC Eyes Multiple College Football Playoff Spots as SEC, Big 12 Stumble

The most recent rankings from the selection committee reveal that after a season full of surprises, the list of playoff contenders is almost perfectly aligned with the 12-team bracket format.

Despite upheavals across the board, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is on track to secure at least two spots in the 12-team College Football Playoff, potentially even three.

This was evident from the most recent playoff selection committee rankings on Tuesday night, which positioned the Miami Hurricanes at No. 6, the SMU Mustangs at No. 9, and the Clemson Tigers at No. 12. If these teams win their upcoming games, it’s highly likely that the ACC will have at least two teams in the playoff, with a strong possibility for a third.

SMU has already secured its place in the ACC championship game. Miami will join them if they can overcome the Syracuse Orange. Should the Hurricanes falter, Clemson will take their place in the championship game. Even if Clemson doesn’t make it to Charlotte, they could still snag a third bid for the conference by defeating the formidable South Carolina Gamecocks.

“With a record of 9–2 and only two losses, Clemson stands out,” said committee chair Warde Manuel. “The teams just behind them have three losses. We believe their recent performance, including three consecutive victories since their defeat at Louisville, warrants their rise to the 12th spot,” he added, referencing their recent victories over Virginia Tech and Pitt.

The SEC’s unexpected losses last Saturday, where three ranked teams fell to unranked opponents, have opened doors for Clemson. Positioned just ahead of the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide, No. 14 Mississippi Rebels, and No. 15 South Carolina, Clemson will hold its rank if it beats the Gamecocks, especially if there are upsets among the top 12.

This turn of events marks a significant recovery for a conference that seemed likely to receive just one playoff bid a few weeks ago. SMU’s consistent victories, Miami’s overall performance, and Clemson’s recent winning streak following their loss to Louisville have perfectly coincided with the SEC’s missteps to boost the ACC’s playoff prospects.

Currently, the SEC likely stands to secure three spots with the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs, and Tennessee Volunteers leading the pack. The Texas A&M Aggies still have a chance but must overcome Texas this Saturday and then Georgia in the SEC championship. Without an automatic bid, their chances are slim, particularly given the three-loss records of other SEC contenders like Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, especially with Clemson now ahead of them.

As the number of SEC teams in contention has decreased, so have their chances to host first-round games. In the playoffs, teams ranked 5-12 will host the first-round games on their campuses, with those ranked between 5-8 hosting those ranked 9-12. While the SEC champion will bypass the first round, it remains to be seen if the runner-up will secure a top-eight seed.

This year’s first round might be notably chilly. If all the Big Ten favorites triumph this weekend, we could see a rematch in the championship game between the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes. The winner is likely to take the No. 1 seed, while the loser could end up at No. 5 and host a game. The Penn State Nittany Lions only need to defeat the undermatched Maryland Terrapins to secure a playoff spot and likely a top-eight seed. Notre Dame also has a path to the playoffs but faces a tougher opponent in the USC Trojans.

If Oregon secures the Big Ten title and the scenarios above unfold, three of the four first-round games would be held in colder locations like Columbus, Ohio; State College, Pa., and South Bend, Ind. Visiting teams should prepare for cold weather conditions.

This could mean the Arizona State Sun Devils, accustomed to warmer climates, might face a chilly road game in the first round. Meanwhile, tension builds between the Big 12 champion and the Boise State Broncos over who will secure the fourth first-round bye.

The Broncos, with a 10–1 record, are currently the frontrunners for the Group of 5 automatic bid and are poised as the No. 4 seed. They are ranked five places above the highest-ranked Big 12 team, Arizona State. If both teams continue their winning streaks, it will spark a debate over whether the Sun Devils, or any Big 12 champion, could advance enough to snatch the first-round bye from Boise State.

The Big 12 is actively lobbying for that position, highlighting its overall stronger schedule compared to the Mountain West. An interesting aspect is how much the Mountain West leadership will support Boise State, a school transitioning to the revamped Pac-12.

With just two weekends left before Selection Sunday, these are the major developments: the ACC’s comeback with multiple bids, the SEC’s downturn, and the ongoing tussle between Boise State and the Big 12. Yet, amid all the chaos of this unpredictable season, the field of contenders and playoff scenarios is finally taking shape.

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